The Professor of International Relations examines how Germany’s Cold War struggles with nuclear dependence, credibility, and restraint are reemerging in new forms – and what this means for Germany’s security today.
Germany’s historical struggles over nuclear weapons are resurfacing in a modern guise. In her new essay for Engelsberg Ideas,“Germany’s New Old Nuclear Dilemma,” Marina Henke, Professor of International Relations at the Hertie School’s Centre for International Security, examines how the debates that shaped West Germany’s Cold War nuclear strategy – balancing dependence on the U.S., deterring Soviet threats, and managing domestic opposition – continue to inform today’s security challenges.
Henke traces how governments from Chancellor Konrad Adenauer through the 1960s grand coalition navigated dependence on the U.S. nuclear umbrella, concerns about Soviet expansionism, and strong domestic resistance to nuclear armament. The essay highlights three key historical instances in which German leaders used “nuclear latency” – leveraging technological capability and deliberate ambiguity – as a diplomatic tool to gain status and influence within NATO.
Henke argues that, while Germany today remains firmly committed to a non-nuclear posture, contemporary developments – including the perceived Russian threat, dependence on the judgment of a single foreign leader (i.e. the U.S. president), and enduring constraints such as closed civilian nuclear infrastructure, strong public opposition, and treaty commitments – are reviving familiar dilemmas in new forms. Rather than pursuing an independent nuclear arsenal (or using nuclear latency), current policy discussions increasingly emphasise bolstering conventional deterrence – including deep-strike capabilities, cyber defense, and missile-defense systems – with the goal of reducing Germany’s reliance on allies.
As Henke concludes, Germany continues to face the complex challenge of balancing reliability as a NATO ally with developing the sovereign capacity to safeguard its own security and national interests.
Henke recently discussed her research on Germany’s nuclear history on The Arms Control Primer podcast. Joined by host Alexander Bollfrass (IISS) and Andreas Lutsch (Bundesnachrichtendienst’s Federal University), she explored Germany’s post-war nuclear trajectory – from early ambitions and NATO nuclear-sharing arrangements to accession to the Non-Proliferation Treaty and today’s renewed debate over deterrence amid Russia’s war in Ukraine. Listen to the episode: “Better Know a Non-Nuke: Germany.”
Read the full essay: Germany’s New Old Nuclear Dilemma – Engelsberg Ideas
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