"People assign competence to the AfD in the most pressing issues.”

On Sunday elections were held in the former Eastern German states of Thuringia and Saxony. In both states, the far-right party Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) won a large proportion of the vote, while many of Germany’s established parties struggled to enter parliament. Why was the far-right party so successful, how do we explain the sudden rise and success of the Bündnis Sarah Wagenknecht (BSW), whose platform mixes left and far-right positions, and what do the election results mean for the country’s political establishment? Andrea Römmele, Hertie School Professor of Communication and Civil Society and author of the new book Demokratie neu denken, comments.

We just saw the AfD come in first place in the Thuringian state election, and second in Saxony. What explains the far-right party’s success?

One reason for the results lies in the political landscape in the east. The party system here is much more volatile than in the west: party structures are way less stable, we have less party identification, parties have much fewer members, and civil society is less engaged. Another important factor is that people in the east feel left behind by the many changes they have been forced to undergo since reunification. New, big transformations, like the green transition, for example, seem overwhelming for them, and this makes them more susceptible to populist political approaches. Alongside this, we see that people in these states assign competence to the AfD in the most pressing issues, like migration and security.

It’s also worth noting that the AfD is extremely popular among younger voters. One explanation for this could be that democracy is the only system they know, but it isn’t delivering. Young people are looking toward a bleaker future than their parents’ generation, and this is causing them to turn away from mainstream parties.

What do the results of the elections mean for Germany’s political establishment?

It is a disaster, to put it mildly. Two extreme parties, the AfD and the BSW, have done very well – and they represent the fringes. Meanwhile, the Free Democrats didn’t make it into either state parliament, and the Social Democrats (SPD) are in the single digits. However, the centre-right CDU did well in Saxony and managed to achieve a strong second place in Thuringia, reaching 23.6% of the vote. This puts them in the position to form a government, most likely with BSW, SPD and the leftist Linke. 

Whatever coalitions are formed, the two new state governments will present a huge challenge to Chancellor Scholz’s already embattled government, and as similar results are expected in the Brandenburg state elections later this month, the situation is only likely to get worse.

In your new book Demokratie neu denken, you argue that we need to shift our thinking away from the individual toward the collective, and instead of fear of the future, we need courage. How do you think the political establishment can react to the results of these elections?

The major issues we are facing – climate change, urbanisation, demography and migration, digitisation, and many others – need to be actively and progressively tackled and managed, not simply ignored or downplayed. If we do not do that, we will have a steep rise in inequality, and this will lead to more polarisation, more hate and more populism. Only democracy can take up that task. 

What needs to change? Certainly not our system – our democracy hardware (federalism and proportional representation) is working just fine. It’s our software that needs some updates: 

1) Our political communication needs a positive narrative, one that gives people hope for the future. And this narrative has to be sung loud.
2) Politicians need to tackle long-term problems, not only manage short-term crises. The focus has to be on vision, not re-election.
3) We need to be able to “deliver” our policies. Digitisation is a key here.
4) Cities are already tackling these challenges in a very concrete way. They show us what works and what doesn’t – we need to zoom in on them as policy laboratories. 

One last piece of advice for politicians: stop complaining, start acting! See what works and contribute. 

Andrea Römmele is Professor of Communication and Civil Society and Dean of Executive Education at the Hertie School. She also serves as the university’s Vice President.

Find out more about Andrea Römmele’s book Demokratie neu denken at the launch event on 18 September at the Hertie School. The event will be held in German.

Views expressed by the interviewee may not necessarily reflect the views and values of the Hertie School.