Tobias Bunde on the “Zeitenwende” and German security policy

Tobias Bunde, postdoctoral researcher at the Hertie School’s Centre for International Security and director of research and policy at the Munich Security Conference, published the article “Lessons (to be) learned? Germany’s Zeitenwende and European security after the Russian invasion of Ukraine” in the forthcoming issue of the academic journal Contemporary Security Policy.

The article discusses, first, why the Russian invasion is widely perceived as a turning point in Germany; second, why German leaders have previously failed to adapt their beliefs; and third, why the Russian invasion will likely trigger a more far-reaching overhaul of German foreign beliefs. The author argues that the invasion of Ukraine is widely seen as a “Zeitenwende,” or watershed moment, in Germany because it undermines key foreign policy beliefs of the German elites. Although the geopolitical certainties German foreign policy was based on had been eroding for a long time, German elites previously failed to adapt core beliefs regarding Russia and the use of force. As Bunde argues, this is due to the fact that these beliefs were not only deeply embedded in largely uncontested identity constructions but also shaped the definition of economic interests, which in turn made ideational adaptation more costly. Moreover, Germany’s extraordinarily beneficial geopolitical situation in the post-Cold War era meant that the country could afford not to learn. Although the “Zeitenwende” will trigger significant change, the author points out, it is unclear which lessons exactly Germans will now be learning and how far that adaptation will go. Given Germany’s key position in Europe and its previous role in shaping the European and transatlantic policy toward Russia, the results of these learning processes will significantly shape the emerging European security order.

Read the full article (in English, free access) here. 

The Hertie School is not responsible for any content linked or referred to from these pages. Views expressed by the author/interviewee may not necessarily reflect the views and values of the Hertie School.