Public event

Can we forecast Rule of Law and corruption risk?

Why does the world seem such a worse place out of a sudden? ERCAS’s newly launched "Corruption Risk Forecast" allows a more granular view into rule of law and control of corruption developments in over 120 countries.

The V-Dem Project finds only 34 liberal democracies left (home to only 13% of the world population), down from 42 in 2012. The World Justice Project reports 74% declining countries on their rule of law index (which also includes corruption), accounting for 84.7% of the world’s population. As we do not have a universally acknowledged ‘rule of law threshold’, we need to triangulate using several indicators to understand if the trends are indeed so negative and how can we predict future developments.

ERCAS introduces a new complementary forecast on control of corruption, which has more positive news: 23 countries have significantly progressed on control of corruption versus only 9 which experienced significant backslides globally.

Join us for a presentation followed by a roundtable discussion on the global trends in rule of law and control of corruption based on ERCAS’s newly released analytical tool. The tool surveys 120 countries for 12 years relying on objective and actionable indicators, such as press freedom or judicial independence, and on the first ever fact-based transparency measurement for 130 countries.


  • Rolf Alter is an experienced economist and Senior Fellow at the Hertie School. He spent over 25 years at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in Paris. In 2006, he was appointed Chief of Staff to the OECD Secretary-General, and in 2009 he became Director of Public Governance. He previously also worked for the IMF in Washington, DC, and for the German Ministry of Economy in Bonn. For the last several years, he has been a member of the Advisory Board of the Global Risks Report of the World Economic Forum. Alter’s interests include institutional and regulatory reform, productivity, innovation, results-oriented budgeting, transparency, leadership and integrity. He holds a doctorate from the University of Göttingen. In 2013, he received a doctorate h.c. from the National University of Hungary and in 2016 was awarded the O.P. Dwivedi Award by the International Association of Schools and Institutes of Administration (IASIA) for his outstanding contribution to public administration and policy.

  • Dr. Angela Reitmaier is a member of the Board of Transparency International Germany since June 2019. Previously, she chaired the Working Group on International Agreements which focuses on foreign bribery and corporate accountability. She participated in the Peer Reviews of Germany under the UN Convention against Corruption, the OECD Anti-Bribery Convention and the OECD Guidelines for Multinational Enterprises. She also worked as consultant for Transparency International headquarters in Berlin. Ms. Reitmaier started her career at the Ministry of Economics in Bonn and worked as a lawyer in Washington, D.C. and as MDG Advisor at the Kenyan Secretariat of the New Partnership for Africa’s Development and at UNDP in Nairobi. She holds a PhD in European Communities Law from the Free University of Berlin and a Master of Comparative Law for American Practice from the George Washington University. She completed her legal studies at the University of Hamburg.

  • Roberto Martínez B. Kukutschka works as Research Coordinator for Transparency International. He conducted research for the large-scale EU-funded Projects ANTICORRP and DIGIWHIST for the European Research Centre for Anti-Corruption and State-Building (ERCAS). Roberto is a governance and anti-corruption expert with over ten years of experience and with a special interest in the measurement of corruption and the distortions that corruption causes on the market. Besides his experience in the NGO and academic sectors, Roberto has also worked for the public sector in Mexico and has served as a consultant for several development agencies, as well as for the European Commission and the Council of Europe.

  • Alina Mungiu-Pippidi is Professor of Democracy Studies at the Hertie School in Berlin. Her research centres on anti-corruption policy and good governance. Mungiu-Pippidi chairs the European Research Centre for Anti-Corruption and State-Building (ERCAS) where she managed the FP7 research project ANTICORRP and the Horizon 2020 project DIGIWHIST. Mungiu-Pippidi is President of the Romanian Academic Society (SAR) and founder of the social media watchdog platform Clean Romania! ( She studied political science at Harvard University after completing a PhD in Social Psychology in 1995 at the Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of Iaşi in Romania.

CorruptionRisk.Org is a free analysis tool for diagnosis, monitoring, and action against corruption developed by the European Research Centre for Anti-Corruption and State-Building (ERCAS) at the Hertie School.