Understanding Nuclear Assurance, Deterrence and Escalation in Europe
Funded by the Stanton Foundation this project examines what is at the heart of European nuclear security.
The project will tackle four distinct but interconnected research areas:
Research Area I
The Role of Nuclear Weapons for Assurance Purposes
How are alliance member states assured that their security is protected? Are nuclear deployments an essential ingredient to intra-alliance assurance? Or do they incentivize free-riding or even moral hazard?
Research Area II
Assurance and Extended Deterrence in NATO
Can NATO square the circle and maintain allied cohesion and successfully deter adversaries in the post- INF era? What are the main challenges to extended deterrence and assurance in Europe today?
Research Area III
Transatlantic “Decoupling” and Alternative Options for European Nuclear Deterrence
What if NATO’s nuclear sharing arrangement breaks down and the United States renounces it nuclear guarantee? What are realistic alternative options that could provide a second-best option for European deterrence if and when the current arrangement breaks down?
Research Area IV
Understanding Potential Nuclear Escalation Dynamics in Europe
Could a conventional skirmish between NATO and Russia advertently or inadvertently prompt Russian nuclear escalation? What are current Russian or NATO escalation thresholds? What type of inadvertent escalation risks need to be considered?