The project will tackle four distinct but interconnected research areas:

Research Area I

The Role of Nuclear Weapons for Assurance Purposes

How are alliance member states assured that their security is protected? Are nuclear deployments an essential ingredient to intra-alliance assurance? Or do they incentivize free-riding or even moral hazard?

Research Area II

Assurance and Extended Deterrence in NATO

Can NATO square the circle and maintain allied cohesion and successfully deter adversaries in the post- INF era? What are the main challenges to extended deterrence and assurance in Europe today?

Research Area III

Transatlantic “Decoupling” and Alternative Options for European Nuclear Deterrence

What if NATO’s nuclear sharing arrangement breaks down and the United States renounces it nuclear guarantee? What are realistic alternative options that could provide a second-best option for European deterrence if and when the current arrangement breaks down?

Research Area IV

Understanding Potential Nuclear Escalation Dynamics in Europe

Could a conventional skirmish between NATO and Russia advertently or inadvertently prompt Russian nuclear escalation? What are current Russian or NATO escalation thresholds? What type of inadvertent escalation risks need to be considered?

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