Katharina Emschermann and Nils Metternich discuss the future and what can and cannot be predicted.
In the second episode of the “Berlin Security Beat”, the Centre for International Security's podcast, Dr. Katharina Emschermann, Deputy Director at the Centre, talks to Dr. Nils Metternich, Associate Professor in International Relations at the University College London and an expert on civil conflicts and the prediction of their dynamics.
They discuss what we can and cannot predict in international security, why a Nobel Peace Prize winner went to war in Ethiopia, the role of forecasting in the policymaking process, and what conflicts to watch in 2021.
Listen to the episode:
Bibliography
ACLED (2019): Ten Conflicts to Worry About in 2020
ACLED (2020): Mid-Year Update: Ten Conflicts to Worry About in 2020
Cedermann, Lars-Erik, Nils B. Weidmann (2017): Predicting Armed Conflict: Time to Adjust Our Expectations? In: Science, 355(6324), 474-476
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Nils Metternich’s Choice for Best Books of 2020
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