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24.08.2021

Julian Wucherpfennig fact-checks assumptions behind the phrase “2015 must not be repeated"

In a ZEIT online opinion piece, Professor of International Affairs and Security references newest research to disprove alleged link between refugees and terrorism.

Julian Wucherpfennig, Professor of International Affairs and Security at the Hertie School, unpacks the assumptions implicit in the phrase “2015 must not be repeated” voiced in the face of evacuations from Afghanistan last week by several leading CDU figures including candidate for German chancellor Armin Laschet, but also by extreme-right AfD leader Alice Weidel. Such warnings of another “wave of refugees” exploit fears of foreign terrorism. Those fears, as Wucherpfennig shows, are unfounded. He draws on his newest research with Sara M.T. Polo (University of Essex) and numbers published by the Global Terrorism Index to refute the alleged terrorism-refugee nexus. His argument is three-fold.

For one, fear of foreign terrorism is over-blown as the rate of deadly terrorist attacks in OECD-countries is very low. Secondly, there is no causal link between the number of refugees and terror attacks in Western countries. Thirdly, the Taliban’s logic of action suggests no motivation to conduct or support terror attacks. The group’s declared goal is local, namely the establishment of the Islamic Emirates of Afghanistan. In all likelihood, they will try to avoid future Western retaliation or intervention.

While a humanitarian tragedy is unfolding in Afghanistan, Afghan refugees are suspected wrongfully of importing terrorism. When, in fact, - as evidenced by Wucherpfennig’s research – they themselves are at an increased risk of falling victim to right-wing terrorism.

Thus, Julian Wucherpfennig argues that the real danger is not a repeat of 2015, but rather of 2020 with the right-wing terrorist attack in Hanau, Germany.

Read the full article (in German) here.

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Views expressed by the author/interviewee may not necessarily reflect the views and values of the Hertie School.

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