Does Russia’s invasion of Ukraine also represent a nuclear Zeitenwende, leading to changes in nuclear policies around the world?
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has been widely perceived as a turning point in world politics – or a “Zeitenwende”, as described by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. The invasion has triggered a range of economic, financial and conventional military responses. However, Russia’s nuclear threats, which have accompanied the invasion, have raised another question: does the war also represent a nuclear Zeitenwende, leading to changes in nuclear policies? This question forms the focus of a special issue of The Nonproliferation Review titled “Nuclear Zeitenwende? The consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine for nuclear policies around the world”.
Co-edited by Tobias Bunde, Professor of International Security at the Hertie School Centre for International Security, and Michal Onderco, Professor of International Relations at Erasmus University Rotterdam, the special issue approaches the question through the lens of domestic politics, investigating how domestic actors in various countries interpret and respond to Russia’s nuclear sabre-rattling. The articles reveal diverse national reactions, shaped by internal political and societal dynamics. As Bunde and Onderco assert in their introduction to the issue, “The nuclear Zeitenwende is what domestic actors make of it.”
Beyond analysing nuclear policy debates emerging in Russia and Ukraine, the issue also includes case studies on non-nuclear US allies supporting Ukraine, such as Germany, Poland, Japan, and South Korea, alongside an analysis of a non-European nuclear power, Pakistan.
The collection of articles reveals fragmented global nuclear responses, illustrating both significant changes and continuities. It aims to open, rather than conclude, the debate about whether the world is witnessing a nuclear Zeitenwende and how its underlying dynamics can be analysed.
Key European perspectives:
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Poland: Centre Fellow Monika Sus and Łukasz Kulesa (Royal United Services Institute) analyse Poland’s push to join NATO’s nuclear-sharing programme. This push is driven by Russia’s actions and domestic shifts, despite US reluctance to expand the number of countries participating in the programme.
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Germany: Bunde and Onderco discuss how Russia’s nuclear threats unsettled the German domestic debate on nuclear deterrence, leading to a new “permissive dissensus”. Supporters of nuclear deterrence seized this moment to push through their preferred policy, as Russia’s repeated nuclear threats bolstered the case for nuclear deterrence and temporarily weakened disarmament advocates.
Bunde and Sus’s contributions to this special issue exemplify the centre’s commitment to advancing European perspectives on nuclear security. It also reflects the impact of the project Raising the Nuclear IQ for a New Nuclear Age, funded by the Stanton Foundation, which has been instrumental in enabling the centre to establish itself as a European hub for research on nuclear security challenges.
You can explore the special issue of The Nonproliferation Review here.
The Hertie School is not responsible for any content linked or referred to from these pages. Views expressed by the author/interviewee may not necessarily reflect the views and values of the Hertie School.
More about the experts
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Tobias Bunde, Professor of International Security
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Monika Sus, Fellow, Centre for International Security