
A new study co-led by Professor of Data Science and Public Policy Simon Munzert aims to transform the way we forecast Germany’s multiparty system.
Berlin, 22 January 2025. This year’s German Federal Election is expected to be an eventful one. Several established parties risk falling below the Bundestag’s 5% threshold to enter parliament. With the election just a month away, academics from the Hertie School and its partners the University of Mannheim and Witten/Herdecke University are attempting to enhance the way we predict the outcome of multiparty elections.
The Zweitstimme project, active since 2017, is a collaborative initiative aimed at enhancing election forecasting in Germany. Simon Munzert, Professor of Data Science and Public Policy and Director of the Data Science Lab, serves as the Hertie School’s Principal Investigator for the project. Zweitstimme’s newest and most ambitious model yet will analyse the fluctuations that could occur before election day, the level of inherent uncertainty in the current polls, and what chances individual candidates have at securing a seat in the Bundestag.
Zweitstimme examines both survey and demographic data
Rather than relying solely on published polling data, the project uses a model which combines polls with historical and district-level data. With this approach, the researchers hope to provide a prediction that accounts for regional variation and population composition.
“Election polls provide voters with valuable information. They are part of the opinion-forming process. At the same time, they only reflect current sentiments. With our prediction model, we aim to use these and other data to make more informed predictions about the election outcome,” says Munzert.
The initiative also incorporates innovative methods such as the “wisdom of the crowds”, which integrates individual uncertainty into predictions, enhancing their reliability. The online Zweitstimme platform is the central hub for the project. It shares research results and offers daily election forecast updates, interactive visualisations, and expert commentary through periodic blog posts.
Project looks at how citizens interact with polls
Beyond forecasting election results, the researchers at Zweitstimme are also addressing two critical questions: How should polls and predictions be communicated to the public? And what effects do election polls have on political decision-making and campaign strategies? To explore these themes, the team is surveying hundreds of journalists, constituency candidates and their teams.
“Our study allows us, for the first time, to comprehensively collect data on voters’ expectations for the outcome of a federal election, as well as on how voters engage with polls. We hope this will help us learn how to communicate polls and predictions more effectively,” Munzert explains.
The project is funded by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft and is being carried out together with project partners from the University of Mannheim and Witten/Herdecke University.
For the latest forecasts and analyses, visit zweitstimme.org.
Press contact
Nick Cosburn, Media Relations Associate
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pressoffice@hertie-school.org