Tobias Bunde on Germany’s Zeitenwende: Navigating a foreign policy identity crisis

In a new open-access article published in The British Journal of Politics and International Relations, Tobias Bunde, Professor of International Security at the Hertie School’s Centre for International Security, analyses how Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine undermined widely shared foreign policy ideas in Germany, leading to an identity crisis that has both facilitated and constrained its policy adaptation. 

“…the adaptation of German foreign and security policy to the new security environment as the ‘alteration of old beliefs’ will remain, in John Dewey’s words, ‘troublesome work’,” says Bunde. 

Bunde argues that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggered a foreign policy identity crisis, forcing Germany to abandon long-standing assumptions and implement policy changes that had previously been considered unattainable. Key shifts include increased defence spending, a redefined Russia policy, and strengthened commitments to NATO. Yet, the study finds that despite these initial changes, deeply embedded aspects of Germany’s traditional foreign policy identity have slowed further adaptation. 

While Germany has made significant policy shifts, Bunde observes that adaptation has been uneven across different policy areas. In cases where previous assumptions collapsed – such as Germany’s reliance on Russian energy – change was relatively swift and widely accepted. However, when new policies did not align with enduring aspects of German foreign policy identity, they faced greater resistance.

Bunde finds that while Germany has made significant departures from past policies, the lack of a new consensus has enabled opposition to push back against more far-reaching reforms. As the initial shock of the invasion subsided, debates over Germany’s strategic direction have intensified, particularly regarding military aid to Ukraine and defence investments. 

The article “Zeitenwende as a foreign policy identity crisis: Germany and the travails of adaptation after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine” is part of a forthcoming special issue on different European responses to the war, co-edited by Benjamin Martill and Centre Fellow Monika Sus. You can read the introduction to the special issue by Martill and Sus here.

Read Bunde’s full article in The British Journal of Politics and International Relations here. 

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