Decision-making in a volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous world can quickly become a costly and risky endeavor – especially in the realm of foreign and security affairs. To lower risks in decision-making, to widen decision makers’ perspectives and to provide them with policy options, Foresight Analysis is one of the most powerful analytic methods in an analyst’s quiver. Foresight Analysis helps analysts and political advisors to undertake estimative analysis, which involves thinking systematically about the various ways the future is likely to unfold and what is most likely to determine the eventual outcome. The objective of Foresight Analysis is not to predict the future, but to generate a solid set of scenarios that can bound the range of plausible alternative futures. Foresight Analysis is most useful when a situation is complex and the outcomes too uncertain to trust a single prediction. It has proven highly effective in helping analysts, decision makers, and policymakers contemplate multiple futures, challenge their assumptions, and anticipate surprise developments by identifying “unknown unknowns” – i.e., factors, forces, or players that one did not realize were important or influential before commencing the exercise.
Main Topics and Learning Objectives
– Understanding the difference between prediction, prognosis, forecasting, and foresight
– Getting acquainted with the concept of cognitive biases and intuitive traps and how the prevent human being from thinking clearly ('fast and slow thinking')
– Familiarization with the six main Structured Analytic Techniques (with an emphasis on Strategic Foresight and Scenario Thinking)
– Learning how to conduct a full strategic foresight cycle
Teaching Methods
Course participants will be introduced to a variety of Structured Analytical Techniques (SATs): Cognitive Biases; Key Assumptions Check, Key Driver Analysis, Actors and Stakeholder Mapping, Scenario Development (2x2 matrix), Indicator Development and Evaluation, Strategy Development
Target Group
Mid-career managers in Global Risk Units (private sector); Policy Planning Staffs (public sector); Think Tankers (Geopolitics)
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