Policy game: What happens if the United States leave NATO?
Abstract
The scenario: Shortly after his second inauguration in January 2025, President Donald J. Trump moves quickly to fulfill one of his campaign promises: the withdrawal of the United States from NATO. The Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) starts executing plans for the departure of all military assets from European soil, including nuclear and missile defense systems as well as U.S. forces assigned to NATO. Russia, still absorbed by its year-long campaign against Ukraine, hails the United States “for its contribution to a new era of European security”. European leaders, surprised by the outcome of the U.S. presidential election, enter crisis mode in an attempt to find consensus on a new European security architecture. Only a few months later, reports about local unrest of “ethnic Russians” in Estonia and military movements in the Russian exclave Kaliningrad appear on BBC Breaking News.
You will be assigned to one of five teams tasked with representing your country´s interest in the unfolding security crisis. The policy game is structured into four different phases. In each phase, new information about the unfolding scenario is given to the participants, presenting unique challenges to each team in each phase. The class will learn how to react in high-stakes security policy situations and unveil challenges to the European security architecture in the years ahead.
The class will conclude with a session on career paths in foreign and security policy.
Participants will be asked to contribute actively to the course with their own expertise and opinions to create a conducive learning atmosphere.
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