Causal Inference
Instructors: William Lowe
Abstract
This course covers contemporary methods for causal inference with a focus on applications to public policy topics and connections to data science and machine learning techniques.
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This course covers contemporary methods for causal inference with a focus on applications to public policy topics and connections to data science and machine learning techniques.
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Democracy is under attack in many parts of the world - we have observed Trump in the US, Bolsonaro in Brazil, Viktor Orban in Hungary and the PiS-Party in Poland. Italy is currently experiencing a neo-fascist government under Meloni and who knows how France and the far right will develop. But besides these visible big shifts in government we have also experienced smaller institutional changes that challenge/break with democratic principles. Political Science is debating these trends under the headline "democratic backsliding", "regression of democracy" and "re-autocratization". Our seminar deals with the big question how to recognize these developments, how to measure and contextualize them and also have a deep-dive into how different regime-types are debated in the social sciences. We will also have a debate on the role of (changing) role of media in democracies, on the role of politics as a profession and will close with democracy scenarios. What potential paths can democracy take? Where are risks and challenges, but also opportunities?
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This course offers an in-depth examination of the relationship between the climate crisis and human rights. The course will cover why and how the climate crisis is a prominent human rights issue globally and will offer tools to critically evaluate the mutual supportiveness and possible tensions between human rights and climate action.
The course has two parts: Part I explores the theoretical and historical discussions on the interrelationship between climate change and human rights (law). It includes a brief overview of the history of the development of human rights norms and institutions, the science and politics of climate change, the different interpretations of what climate justice entails, the differentiated impacts of the climate crisis on human rights, the impacts of climate response measures on human rights, and the interface between the just transition to a low carbon society and human rights.
Part II focuses on how institutions and actors engage with human rights and climate crisis interface. It includes the evolution of the inclusion of human rights in the international climate regime as well as the inclusion of climate change in the international human rights regime, climate litigation and human rights, social and legal mobilisation for climate action through human rights, corporate climate accountability and human rights, and the situation of environmental defenders.
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The goal of this course is to provide students with the skills to effectively communicate with the media, a live audience, and their professional networks. By finding the right message, building confidence for public speaking, and understanding the goals of every communication, students will learn how to make public speaking work for them.
Students will learn how to organise their message, create compelling presentations, and deliver them with clarity and impact. Throughout the course, students will engage in a variety of activities that will help them develop their public speaking skills, including impromptu speeches, prepared speeches, group presentations, and media interviews. Students will also learn how to use visual aids and technology to enhance their presentations.
In addition to public speaking, the course will cover other important aspects of communication such as active listening, nonverbal communication, and interpersonal communication. Students will learn how to read body language, engage in effective dialogue, and sidestep potential miscommunication.
The course will culminate in a final project where students will create and deliver a persuasive speech on a topic of their choice. They will receive feedback from their peers and the instructors to help them refine their presentation skills. Upon completion of this course, students will have developed the confidence and skills necessary to communicate effectively in a variety of settings.
They will also have a better understanding of the importance of effective communication in both personal and professional contexts.
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Armed conflict, killing, starvation, torture, rape, or displacement characterise the political realities for many people, groups, or countries around the globe, and continue to pose core threats to their security. The course introduces major themes and debates in the contemporary study of conflict and violence, including the causes and consequences of interstate warfare, civil war, terrorism, violence against civilians, forced migration, repression, military intervention, as well as nuclear and cyber warfare. To systematically engage with these topics, the course will draw on a set of essential theoretical frameworks. The overarching goal of the course is to provide the conceptual and analytical tools necessary for evidence-based policy making in the realm of conflict and violence, and apply them to specific instances as exemplified above.
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How can a still fragile peace of a post-conflict situation be stabilized? How can a return to violence be averted? Which autonomy rights should be granted to minority groups? Should an external peacekeeping force be invited to the country? What about disarmament?
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Culture is one of the most complex concepts in the social science, including policy studies. Its uses range from an understanding of culture as a system of meaning and identity to culture as art and creative expression. Numerous sociological, anthropological, economic and political science approaches address culture, either as an explanatory concept or as a phenomenon that needs explaining. We will briefly review these, but quickly shift to policy. By this, we mean the frame-works, objectives, ways and means by which culture becomes part of governmental and non-governmental programs and projects.
There is, for example, the use of culture in international relations, as exemplified in the distinc-tions between soft, sharp and hard power or the concept and practice of cultural diplomacy. There is frequent reference to culture in scenarios evoking a clash of civilizations, identity poli-tics, social conflicts and international tensions. Sociologists also refer to one aspect of culture, namely cultural capital, as an important dimension of social inequality and how societies are stratified. Strikingly different is the use of culture in local and regional contexts as exemplified in a deepening intersection with the economy, whereby culture becomes an instrument of economic development and urban revitalization, encapsulated in terms like the creative class, creative cities, and the cultural economy.
In reviewing cultural policies at the international, national and local level, and looking at a series of case studies, the course uses a variety of instructional formats, e.g., lecture, seminar-type dis-cussion, guest lectures, in-class exercises, and student presentations.
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This course is about decision making in theory and practice. Our theoretical framework will be classical decision theory, informed by the literature on human and machine cognitive performance and bias. Our discussion of practice will also be informed by invited speakers who are chosen to be people whose jobs require them to make decisions in a technical context, e.g., to run election campaigns, evaluate government programs, or drive sales.
Prerequisites: Statistics 1 and 2, or equivalent. Familiarity with basic probability manipulations, up to Bayes theorem. Familiarity with machine learning and prediction models will be helpful but not required.
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This course provides a comprehensive introduction to the basics of computers, data structures, and algorithms. The first half of the course explores the core principles of computer logic and various data types and structures. Building on this foundation, the second half covers essential algorithms and their real-world applications, particularly within the field of public policy. Theoretical concepts are reinforced through practical implementation in Python, following industry-standard software development practices and paradigms to enhance understanding.
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Data has become ubiquitous and plays an ever-increasing role both in research and policy-making. However, the real potential of data can only be unlocked if we can effectively communicate the insights we draw from analysing the data.
This can be particularly challenging when working with interdisciplinary teams or with policymakers as data literacy is oftentimes low.
To overcome these challenges, data visualisation is a powerful tool as humans are much better at processing and retaining information that is presented visually.
This course gives you an introduction to data visualisation with R. The objective of this course is to learn how visualisation can be used to communicate your research effectively.
The course consists of a brief theoretical introduction:
Why use visualisation? How do humans process visual information compared to numbers and text?
Which types of graphs exist? Which one is suitable for visualising different types of data?
The dos and don'ts of data visualisation.
Then, we will delve into the practical part. You will get familiarized with the following fields of data visualisation:
Visualising data sets for descriptive statistics (univariate and bivariate figures such as bar charts, pie charts, scatter plots, boxplots, violin plots, heat maps, grids of plots, ridgeline plots, etc.)
Visualising regression outputs (point estimates, confidence intervals, comparing different models estimates visually)
Geographic visualisations: Choropleth maps (e.g. colouring German counties by population density) or distributional maps (e.g. displaying cities with the most bike lanes)
Displaying networks (e.g. retweet networks between politicians)
Using Rshiny to create interactive apps that allow readers to shape the data visualisation according to their needs. This is a powerful tool to allow readers to experience the data themselves.
Along with the technical side of how to implement these graphs in R, we will always discuss how different graphical displays are perceived by the audience, and which design choices are paramount to focus the audience's attention on what you want to communicate.
The whole course is very hands-on and there will be a lot of time dedicated to students to try it out themselves.
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As the fastest growing subfield of machine learning, deep learning is the technology behind facial recognition, machine translation, AlphaGo, and many other well-known applications. As policy makers are beginning to regulate machine learning, technical understanding of deep learning in public policy is invaluable. In policy research and analysis, deep learning has only recently started to be applied. In this course, students will learn the main theoretical concepts of (deep) neural networks, and get introduced to applications in computer vision, natural language processing and other areas. Students will gain hands-on experience by training and testing their own models in policy-relevant applications. The main objective of this course is to enable students to scope out new meaningful and robust deep learning applications, and to advise decision makers on strengths and limitations of the technology.
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Many states and societies across the so-called Arab World witnessed protests, upheavals, and political violence during 2011 and since. In this seminar we compare various protest movements and authoritarian regimes across the region since 2011 and focus on explaining the various outcomes of these contentious episodes. Therefore, we start by introducing concepts and methods for analyzing contentious politics in authoritarian regimes in the first five sessions. In the second part we then look into the effects of protests on democratization and human rights in several countries affected by the protests during 2011. We will discuss in depth the transition trajectories of cases of: Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, Syria, Bahrain, Morocco and Jordan. In the third part –the last two sessions– we then compare the consequences of different transition trajectories during the Arab Uprisings for democracy and the human rights situation in the region and discuss their policy implications for policymakers.
For some of the sessions we might have guest speakers with a relevant policy or research background via zoom or in person. More or other country cases may be added if we have the possibility to have an interesting guest join us discussing another case.
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